A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
